Every line, on the record.

The close is the market's final word

The closing line is the price at game time, after a week of tested money, injury news, and weather have been priced in — the market's sharpest final estimate of the game. That's why bettors grade themselves against it instead of against memory: the close doesn't move after the fact, and neither does this archive.

What beating the close proves — and what it doesn't

If you bet a side at a better price than where it closed, you beat the close. Over a season, doing that consistently is evidence that your homework finds numbers before the market finishes pricing them. It is not proof of profit: an edge that small still has to survive the vig and plain luck, and plenty of bettors with good closing-line value lose money. Both halves of that sentence, every time — that's the house rule for this page.

Ask Luka to explain →